Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
