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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."